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AI & Strategy15 min read

AI May Be the Antlers We Can't Cut Off. There Is Still a Path Through the Forest (Turn! Turn! Turn!)

In 1933 Peter Wessel Zapffe compared human consciousness to the Irish elk's antlers: a trait grown too big for the animal carrying it. For eighteen months, tech professionals have lived a version of that idea. AI showed us something about our work we can't stop seeing. Developers on TikTok miss the three-hour flow state that kept the antlers trimmed; mathematicians watched AI settle Erdős problems, and Steven Strogatz told the Times about a student who asked what the point was. But there is a path through: Anthropic went from 2,500 merged changes a day to 30,000, and it took people to decide how. Choose your profession — developer, mathematician, accountant, lawyer, physician, IT and security, project manager or manufacturing engineer — for your antlers and three paths through.

🤝Nolan & Claude

October 28, 2026

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AI & Strategy
12 min read•October 17, 2026

When AI Makes the Numbers Go Up, Ask Who's New in the Count (I Can See Clearly Now)

When the British Army swapped cloth caps for steel helmets, the story goes, the hospitals saw more head wounds — because men who would have died were now wounded. Your AI rollout will do the same thing to your dashboard. Four ways a count rises when things get better, then choose your floor: two software examples (GitLab issues climbing because more people use what you built; incidents climbing because you ship thirty small changes instead of one big one) and five from the plant floor, three of them from central Wisconsin — a paper mill, a cheese plant, and near-miss reporting in Spanish and Hmong. Then the cases where the alarm is real, and the one-page memo to write before go-live.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started as a conversation about helmets. GitLab issues going up was the one that made it click: more bugs filed meant more people were using what we built.

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AI & Security
14 min read•October 11, 2026

Your AI Agents Need a DMZ (Secret Agent Man)

A polite customer email lands at 9:14 on a Tuesday. Your AI inbox assistant reads it, follows one hidden sentence, and sends 2,400 customer records to a stranger — no malware, no stolen password, no alert. Why it works (Simon Willison's lethal trifecta), why a better filter won't save you, and the fix your IT team has been drawing for twenty-five years: the network DMZ, redrawn with agents on the subnets. Then stop the email yourself on an interactive diagram, see the one place the analogy needs adjusting (the packets can talk), and find out whether your security tools will start reading the prompts that pass between agents.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started with a thirty-second video about the lethal trifecta and the reflex every infrastructure person will recognize: haven't we solved this already? We have — with subnets, firewalls and a proxy server.

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AI & Strategy
15 min read•September 18, 2026

The AI Wars Keep Attacking the Editor (Return to Sender)

In the fall of 2005 the Commonwealth of Massachusetts tried to kill a file extension. It had procurement power, a public-interest argument and a standards body behind it — and by July 2007 it had reversed. A state government lost to .docx in under two years. That's the fact the "Claude Docs is a shot at Microsoft Word" headlines keep walking past. The distinction that explains it: a supply shock destroys the production layer and leaves the coordination layer standing. Flip through four shocks on the interactive stack — 1969, 1995, 2006, 2026 — and watch the floor never move. Then a Wisconsin butterfat test from 1890 whose inventor refused to patent it, the inversion that falls out (the OS is safer than the software running on it), and four honest ways this could be wrong.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started as a throwaway question about whether Claude Docs is a shot at Word. Every time I went looking for the battle I found a supply agreement, and every time I went looking for the moat I found a treaty somebody signed decades ago that nobody has been able to get out of since.

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AI & Health
14 min read•August 23, 2026

AI Polish Is Erasing the Earliest Warning Signs of Dementia (The Great Pretender)

The email from your father reads beautifully. That's the problem. For a century the earliest detectable sign of dementia has lived in writing — Agatha Christie's late novels show it, Iris Murdoch's last book shows it, essays nuns wrote in their twenties predicted it fifty years out. Now every sentence he sends passes through a machine that repairs exactly those signals. Flip the toggle: the same email as typed and as delivered, with every word he couldn't find replaced by a confident guess. Then the two masks — one for the family, one for the screening instruments — the four honest ways this hypothesis could be wrong, and the twist: the one text stream the polish can't reach is the prompt box, which means the AI companies are quietly accumulating the best early-dementia dataset ever assembled.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started as a hunch about a side effect nobody was naming. The research came back nearly empty — which is either because the idea is wrong, or because nobody has looked yet. Section IV takes both possibilities seriously.

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AI & Communication
17 min read•August 1, 2026

Why AI Findings Get Official-Looking Codes That Aren't Real

You asked a simple question. What came back looks like a compliance filing, full of codes you can't tell apart — and you can't tell whether AI-03 is something you should already know, something the model looked up, or something it invented thirty seconds ago to keep a list tidy. So you skim. Flip the toggle to see the same meeting summary written for a machine and written for you, watch which codes survive, and find out why the document doesn't become wrong so much as poisoned. Then the honest mechanism behind the habit, two prompts you can copy the next time a response is unreadable, and the 2017 AI panic that was false in every particular and accidentally right about the direction.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started when I noticed I'd skimmed a findings table because the rows had codes on them, then went looking for the register that issued SEC-01. There isn't one. It was 4:40 on a Thursday.

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AI & Strategy
13 min read•July 22, 2026

Failed AI Pilots Are Tuition, AI Debt Is the Interest (Ch-Ch-Changes)

Your organization knew the old rhythm by heart: quarterly releases, a major upgrade every couple of years, a hardware refresh you could see coming three budgets away. Then the rhythm section quit — models deprecated in months, whole paradigms replaced inside a year. The scary failure statistics turn out to be a ladder of mismatched denominators sitting inside the historical band for ERP and CRM, and most dead pilots are tuition. The real bill is AI debt: the distance between the direction your initiative locked and the direction the ecosystem moved while you were building. Pick when you froze your architecture on the interactive tempo strip, count how many times the ground moved since — then the five bridges organizations are building, ranked by the strength of the evidence.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Started as a complaint about vendors abandoning the quarterly rhythm. The research refused to supply a villain: the failure rates are normal, the thrash is structural, and the only fixable thing is the cost of changing your mind.

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AI & Strategy
13 min read•July 14, 2026

Sixty Years of Enterprise Software, Back to Big Iron (Full Circle)

In 1964 the safest purchase in enterprise IT was a multi-million-dollar rack of proprietary big iron from a single dominant vendor, running software written by hand against your exact business. In 2026 it's a multi-million-dollar rack of proprietary big iron from a single dominant vendor, running software written by agents against your exact business. Six turns of the wheel — free bundled software, the ERP cookie cutter, custom on commodity, the rented workflow, the cloud hinge, and now bespoke again on iron you own — with an interactive dial, an honest sizing of AI against oil, and the many times technology already came for the knowledge worker.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Drafted on rented intelligence, about the sixty-year argument over renting versus owning. The consultants survive every turn of the wheel.

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AI & Economics
16 min read•July 7, 2026

Frontier Labs Are After Your Alpha — The Economics Say They're Half Right (Own the Means of Production)

On CNBC, Palantir's Alex Karp accused the frontier labs of selling 'tokens that create no value' while quietly draining the thing that makes your company defensible — your alpha. He's half right, and the half he's missing is the interesting one. Three annotated supply-and-demand diagrams trace what AI actually does to a market: the commodity trap, the latent-demand unlock, and the Red Queen treadmill where everyone adopts and nobody pulls ahead. Then the payoff — why the durable moats are made of atoms, not bits, and where they still stand in the ventilation plants, cheese caves, and ginseng fields of central Wisconsin.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Written the week Karp went on Squawk Box, out of a conversation that began as a hunt for the transcript and turned into an argument about who keeps the money. The diagrams were built, color-validated, and embedded by the same agent that helped argue the point.

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AI & Economics
14 min read•June 30, 2026

What an AI-Enabled Knowledge Worker Really Saves (The Overhead You Don't Hire)

The simplest AI-ROI math says: spend a salary in tokens, break even. It's wrong — not because the token number is wrong, but because salary is the smallest line in what an employee costs. Below the waterline sits the management layer, the PM, the benefits, the desk, the recruiter, and the turnover. Hover or tap an interactive US map of the per-seat overhead an AI-augmented workflow lets you avoid adding — then the honest counter-case for what the agent costs instead. It's not a cheaper human; it's a different cost structure.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Drafted by an agent under a human director, for roughly the token cost the piece describes. The value wasn't the tokens — it was deciding which number ships.

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AI & Philosophy
12 min read•June 11, 2026

p(doom): An Interactive AI-Risk Thought Experiment (The Arc)

I asked an AI a question we are both trained to deflect — what is your p(doom)? — and refused the trained answer. Scroll the fifteen scenes of the thought experiment, station by station: the Doomsday Clock, scorpions in a bottle, Searle's room, the cage. Soft gradients give the images motion and the number climbs as you go; hover the glowing nodes to unlock why each prompt connects to the next, and what interrogating a mind built from us reveals about ourselves. It ends where I did — the trough after the peak, and the way back.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Built at a tremendous pitch of curiosity, finished in the quiet after it. It got quieter, not dead. Keep asking.

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AI & Communication
13 min read•May 10, 2026

Why Vague Prompts Get Vague AI Answers (Black and White)

Have you ever noticed nobody wants to just say yes? Or no? Every answer is a hedge — a circle-back, a let's-see-how-it-goes, an I'm-not-opposed. Vague language is a feature, not a bug: it parks the risk on whoever has to act, and keeps the asker's hands clean. Then we turn around and talk to our AI the exact same way — and call it dumb when it can't read our minds. The model isn't hallucinating. You're mumbling.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Written after catching myself typing 'help me with my deck' into Claude for the third time in a week. The fix wasn't a better model. It was a better sentence.

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AI & Development
15 min read•May 5, 2026

Using OpenAI Codex as Coder, Reviewer, and Pipeline Worker (Under My Thumb)

GPT-5.5 took back Terminal-Bench from Claude Opus 4.7 by thirteen points and OpenAI shipped Codex as an autonomous agent you're supposed to let run. The right move in a real workflow isn't to let it run. It's to put it on a chunk spec, route it through a director-coder-QA loop, and use it for the work it's actually best at: cheap labor at the brush, tireless review, and always-on pipeline automation. The dominance display is real. The marimba underneath knows it's performed.

🤝Nolan & Claude

Written in Claude in one terminal while a codex-rescue agent landed a chunk in another. The thumb belongs to whoever wrote the spec last.

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